Blackjack: Probabilities.

 

In order to win regularly at the game of blackjack, you must first understand and master the following probabilities:

 

Reduce the advantage of the house by using the Blackjack Basic Strategy:

The first manner in which you can reduce the advantage of the casino and therefore increase your probability of winning is to use the strategy of base.

 

A player who plays without a strategy can satisfy themselves with probabilities that a seriously lacking in favour, between 3-5% in favour of the house depending on the rules by which they play blackjack.

 

By using the Blackjack Basic Strategy you can reduce the advantage of the house to at least 1%, again depending on the rule they are using.

 

Probability of both going bust:

The player and the croupier have an 8% chance of passing 21 at the same time- except that the croupier loses nothing at this point, graced as he is with the house advantage.

 

Strategies that will see your advantage plummet even further:

Here are a couple of simple strategies that are completely de-favourable to the player.

 

Never pass 21: the player sticks on a hard 12, this strategy gives the advantage of 3.91% to the casino

 

Never play like the casino: the player like the croupier, he hits until he reaches 16 and then stops on 17 or more, without ever doubling or splitting the cards. The casino benefits by an advantage of 5.48%.

 

Average value of hands belonging to the croupier: 18.23

The average value of a hand belonging to the croupier is 18.23. You should thus be hesitant to hit for a supplementary card.

 

Here are the final value probabilities of the croupier's hand, greater than 16, the croupier being obliged to hit until he gets 16 and to stick if he gets 17.

 

Final value of the croupiers hand	%
21 blackjack	4.82
21 (3 cards or more)	7.36
20	17.58
19	13.48
18	13.81
17	14.58
16	28.36

 

One third of the cards are valued at 10:

Of the 52 cards in a deck, 16 are valued at 10 in a game of blackjack; therefore every 3.25 cards will be a 10: this is approximately one third of the pack.

 

Thus, if there have not been any 10 value cards in the last 7 or 8 dealt, then there is a very high probability that the next card will be a 10 value. Adapt your game depending on the possibility. Remember, the 10 value cards are the Face cards and the tens.

 

Probability of going bust on hitting with the hand you have in play:

The following table will give you the probability of going bust on a hit, depending on the value of your hand in course:

 

 

 

Advantage to the player in relation to the visible cards belonging to the croupier:

 

 

You can note from the above table that the probability of the croupier to go bust with some of the cards (4, 5, and 6) is very significant. Once the croupier has more than 6, on the other hand, it is very likely that he will have a very good round.

 

Effect on the game if a card is removed from the deck:

When you look at the probability once a card has been removed from the standard 52 card pack, certain cards have got more impact on the probabilities than others. Taking away all the 5s' from the deck is the most favourable option for the player, whereas taking away all the Aces gives the favour to the casino.