Why Betting Systems Don't Work.

 

 

Isn’t it just the most annoying think ever? Those articles that are saturating casino information sites on the internet at the moment, those articles which claim to explain a gambling system that is guaranteed to beat the house. However, you know that the $5 charge is going to be about as much of an investment as a planting a lump of coal in the garden in the hope it will turn into a diamond- actually, that is probably more likely to happen, give or take a hundred million years. Anyway, you will probably be happy to hear that very few of these sites ever get people to part with their money, unsurprisingly.

 

However, you may be shocked to learn that some people who buy such a system, or who have managed to create their own are actually happy with the results. There is a little self-deception going on here, but it is not necessarily obvious to the deluded one, clearly. Therefore, although these people will see that their system loses sometimes, they are also left with the impression that, with a little tweaking, the system will work. Sometimes they manage a win using the system, and this creates the illusion that they actually work.

 

With the average casino game, the casino pays-out at a lower rate to the true odds would dictate, this is called the house edge and guarantees that the casino will make a profit in the long run; they need to or they would go out of businesses, so this is fair enough.

 

In order for a player to get around the house edge and play for true-odds, they would need to create the condition whereby the payout will exceed the odds of winning. In games such as blackjack, this can happen if the player learns certain cheating techniques, such as card counting or shuffle tracking, but the casinos are aware and look for signs of such a cheat being carried out within their casino. Some players who are very familiar with video poker are able to spot if the game has a slight glitch that has lead to the payouts being pushed above the break-even point. In addition, apparently, a craps shooter can, if dexterity is their forte, manipulate the way in which the dice land. Statistical software can be used to analyse and prove the existence of the methods described in this paragraph, they are real and observable actions.

 

A system that uses pattern analysis, betting combinations that give the house an edge, changing the bet sizes in strategic ways or spotting a dealer who is not very good at his job and therefore builds in a bias to the game, or the roulette wheel that has a bias because it has not been calibrated properly, are all nonsense systems. They have never been proved to work scientifically.

 

 But, such systems are popular nonetheless. This is because on the first few occasions of use the player was lucky, rather than ‘beating the house’ as they would have lead themselves to believe. Overtime the patterns of win are identical to how they would be if no system were used.

 

Another reason that a system will not work, the people who are selling these systems often enter a clause at the end saying that the system should only be used with small denomination bets, but fairly frequently. Whatever the system claims to be doing, the chances of reaching profit X before the bankroll (b) is exhausted is the same as B/B+P.

 

Without the house edge, the probability would be equal to the above ratio. For example, you play a game where you begin with a bankroll of $90 and leave the game once you have won $10. Your chance of winning is therefore $90/$100, which means that you win 9 out of every 10 games statistically speaking. So in a game of 10 sessions, you will be even with nine $10 wins and one $90 loss. When the house edge is accounted for, the probability of winning will reduce, however a $90 bankroll and a $10 aim will still give you a large chance of winning, possibly as much as 8 out of 10.

  

It is possible for anybody to win a casino game without having any prior knowledge (except in skill games such as poker, but they are a different story). This means that any system can be successful in the short term whether or not they work, simply because the odds of winning a game in the first place are not as remote as you may believe them to be.

 

Our advice is to avoid betting strategies as they probably will not work, and those that appear to do so are probably just creating the illusion of working.

 

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