How to Read Your Opponents Cards: Part 1

 

 

So, here you are, in the first stages of a tournament, and you are excited because you have a pair of Aces in hand. You raise and the person in the button position follows. When the flop arrives, it is good news because you manage to get a three-of-a-kind. The flop deals an Ace of Spades, 6 of Spades and 5 of Diamonds. Every body around the table has a large stack so you make a big bet. Your opponent follows and the Queen of Hearts comes next, this card does not appear to pose any problems for you. And, once again, you make a large bet and you are followed. Now, the river gives up the 9 of Spades. The board is then an Ace of Spades, 6 of Spades, 5 of Diamonds, Queen of Hearts, and 9 of Spades. You do not really like this last card, but you still have the highest 3-of-a-kind. You bet half the pot and your opponent goes All-In. So, what will you do?

The first thing to do is to take a few minutes to consider the situation. Immediately, you consider the possible eventuality that you might lose. You need to analyse the history of the round in order to try and establish what hand your opponent is playing with. But can you really consider folding your max three-of-a-kind? You can never be certain of anything in poker, but look at the reasoning below, and you will see that it is sometimes more worthwhile to fold your hand, and that in this situation it is preferable.

A good poker player will make good use of the information that he has garnered during the game in order to try and establish the hand that his opponent has. This is a fairly complex thing to do, but do not worry because each step in the process is relatively simple. The following is an example of a situation in which you should fold such a top hand:

Your opponent follows a raise at the pre-flop hen he is in the button position. Your opponent could hold any old hand, but for a call at the button, it is probable that he has suited cards or who follow each other (such as 7-8, or 10-9).

Your opponent follows a big bet at the flop. This has provided you with some valuable information that a lot of players overlook. This call signifies that your opponent must have at least SOMETHING in hand. From this moment on, you can assume that your opponent will make a DESPERATE ATTEMPT AT A BLUFF on the river if he does not complete his drawing hand. You can equally bet at the river if you do not manage to complete your winning hand. Nonetheless, the 9 of Spades at the river could have provided the awaited draw completion, thus this is a possibility which is fairly weak.

Your opponent follows a big bet at the turn. This second call confirms that your opponent has a good hand; either a strong hand or a strong draw. Because your opponent undertook a smooth call, you can assume that your opponent does not have a complete hand, but, rather, a draw hand.

The river gives a 9 of Spades and your opponent re-raises, going All-In. You have eliminated the possibility of a desperate bluff, and you can guess that this means your opponent has a good hand. He has played a strong game, by re-raising at the river, putting all his chips in danger at the beginning of the tournament. Many hands, such as two pairs, will call for a smooth call at the river. There is a strong possibility that your opponent is playing in kinds, suits of colours. We have considered more than one possibility, but one of them is more likely than the other ones. The most reasonable conclusion is that, because your opponent followed two big bets and then went All-In at the river, is that your opponent has managed to get suits or colours.

Consider the reasoning that we went through:

Why will your opponent not have a weaker three-of-a-kind?

You can consider this option, but must then reject it. Nonetheless, the draw is the hand that best fits the action that your opponent took and this is not three-of-a-kind. If your opponent had a three-of-a-kind draw hand, then he should have touched it at the flop. The typical game play in this case is to follow the flop and then re-raise the turn. If your opponent had three-of-a-kind, he would not have liked the 9 of Spades dealt at the river.

Of course, your opponent will not always make the correct decisions and there is always an element of doubt in poker. Perhaps you will be folding the best hand with 3-of-a-kind Aces, but all that you can do in poker is to take measured decisions.

Do not be tempted into thinking that you are actually folding the best hand in this situation. Follow your reason, occasionally you will make errors, but the majority of the time you will be right.

Make a big call

Do not worry though, the fact that you are trying to read your opponents game will not mean that you will come to the conclusion to fold your hand more often than you otherwise would. Good reasoning will allow you to avoid making a bad call.

You are at the small blind, and you limp with a King of Spades and a Queen of Hearts. The big blind checks and the flop deals two hearts with the 7 of Hearts, 6 of Hearts and 6 of Spades. You both check and the 2 of Hearts is dealt at the turn. You check again and the Ace of Spades is dealt at the river. The board is therefore 7 of Heats, 6 of Hearts, 6 of Spades, 2 of Hearts and Ace of Spades. Your opponent bets the full force of the pot against your King. Can you really follow?

Here is how I would analyse the different possibilities:

 1. Your opponent has three-of-a-kind with 6’s or better. Even if many players would speak with three-f-a-kind at the flop, this is less probable that a player checks at the flop and also at the turn if he is in position. The turn deals a third Heart, and it would be very foolish of your opponent to give you a free card.

2. Your opponent has an Ace. Your opponent could have an Ace, and have the top pair at the river. But a bet at the full force of the pot is normally done with three-of-a-kind on the board. If your opponent really had a high Ace before the river, he would already have bet before the flop, at the flop or at the turn, to try and win the pot.

3. Your opponent has colours. This is the least probable option if you consider the hand. If your opponent had touched colours at the turn, then he would surely have bet because he was in position. Many opponents would have bet on a draw of colours, thus the possibility that he had colours is weak.

You can never be absolutely sure of your decision because you have established that the possibilities are unlikely, and not eliminated them all together. However, in these circumstances, it is probable that your opponent is bluffing; therefore, a call will be the best means of playing the majority of the time.

 

How to Read Your Opponents Cards: Part 1 How to Read Your Opponents Cards: Part 2 How to Read Your Opponents Cards: Part 3

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