The Psychology of Poker: Part 3

Psychology exists, at least in part, to buffer the effects of trials and tribulations, both small and large. There are numerous techniques to ease the storms, putting things into perspective is one of the most effective means to achieve this; taking the time to step back and reflect on your problems to put them in their right dimensions. Here is how to do it:

 

The butterfly effect serves as a metaphor in a chaotic, incontrollable and random world. More specifically, it suggests that small permutations can have significant consequences. The example that is currently used if that of the butterfly flapping its wings in Japan , which causes very slight fluctuations in air flow, can cause a hurricane in Hawaii the following weak. I like the example of a ship on the ocean that changes its direction by 1˚ that will take it to the other side of the world.

 

Application to the poker table:

A minor modification in one place can entrain major changes elsewhere. Here is a concrete example relating to poker:

 

We are at the end of the first day of a large tournament. You are preparing to check-raise the original back-raise of one of your opponents. But the massive amount of the raise means you would have to go ‘all-in'. You throw your jacks down lament your losses, and get increasingly angry as you see that the player who won the pot showed a 9-9 beating the other player who had had Ace-King. You would have own the round, and you learn that the player managed to achieve his huge stack when he played three Aces against opponents who where holding Kings and Queens . He was just a player who had a bit of luck but that you now have to contend with, given that he is set to your right and raises at every opportunity.

 

It is not his mode of play that upsets you, it is all the pairs of Aces that he is getting to easily dealt, and which is subsequently leading to the big stack. The Aces are butterflies, and the hurricane is now sat at your table. Stay calm. Do you remember all those small victories you have had that have allowed you to recuperate some of your chips? Well, remember that it is these that are the first victims of the butterfly effect.

 

The truism ‘688/687':

He is a special management tool to allow you to deal with bad beats: it has resisted the tides of time and uses the random and chaotic language of the butterfly effect. It is called ‘The Truism ‘688/687''. You have just won a tournament in which there where 688 players, they take your photo, hand you your winnings and congratulate you on your game.

 

No need for psychological advice- congratulations! Now, shift the outcome slightly and here is the effect: you have been eliminated from the tournament for the last 10 hours, the final table plays and another champion is crowned in your place. What will happen? A single player was pulled out of the list of participants. 688 players has now become 687 players and has changed the game of all the other players.

 

The last inscriber modifies completely the configuration of the tournament. The cards that are distributed are not the same at the tables that now have an extra player. Each table which counts an extra player will often be playing through the game more rapidly. The players that are moved find themselves in a subsequently different seat than the one they would have found. That ‘fish' (the name given by poker players to beginners) will not give you the easy win you had before, he is now sat at a different table. In the 688 tournament you have his chips and it is those which had allowed you to pass the final bad beat and finally bring in the win.

 

There are many butterflies in Japan :

No, I am not saying that everything is a matter of a randomised process, or that luck counts more than talent at the poker table. But I am saying that in retrospect, certain hands that were played at other tables have a huge influence on the manner of the techniques you will employ to play hands later in the tournament.

 

We always mock the donkey that arrives as Chipleader at the final table, without ever having remembered all those other donkeys that gave us all there chips before, and by consequence have allowed the opportunity for us to beat that donkey at the last table.

 

Where do I want to finish?

At any moment random events can materialise far away from your table, over which you have no control, and which have a considerable influence over the final results, and your mode of play. Thus, when you take a bad beat or a setup, the best thing to do in order not to get too mad is, it seems to me, to be able to leave the table and take yourself away calmly bearing the following in mind:

 

Firstly: "7-2 unmatched beats an Ace 12% of the time."

 

Secondly: "There are many butterflies in Japan ."

The Psychology of Poker: Part 1 The Psychology of Poker: Part 2 The Psychology of Poker: Part 3 The Psychology of Poker: Part 4

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