You Won’t Believe How Much the Bookies Made from the US Election
OK, fine. I admit it: I don’t know how much they made yet either. I’m from the before times (the morning of the 3rd November 2020) and the US election hasn’t happened yet.
But I still have some interesting figures that will blow your mind about how much the bookies are going to make by the end of play today. Just 5 minutes ago, Google showed me an ad for William Hill that had odds of 50-1 for a Trump win.
I’m not going to place the bet. Only you know if that’s a stupid mistake. Did he win, did he lose? It’s so exciting!
History is being made today and none of us has any idea how the unrest will play out, or even if there’s going to be any. But, as a future person, YOU know. All I know is that it’s 2020 and anything could happen.
Crazy Times Call For Crazy Bets
There are some proper whoppers out there in terms of bets. Someone has bet £1m that Biden will win. If a 1-man riot breaks out after they announce the results, my bet is it’s whoever placed that bet.
Odds of 50-1 for a Trump win (OK, so I’m twisting the truth a bit. This is a William Hill promotion for new customers and you’re only allowed to bet £1 and if you win, it counts as a bonus, so there’s wagering requirements) shows that the £1m bet is probably a good one, but there must be a bit of magical thinking going on for whoever placed it. Maybe they think they’re gambling with the universe:
The £1m Gambler: “Surely, if I bet that much money, the universe will let Biden win? I have kids; It wouldn’t be so cruel”
Universe: “I am serious – and don’t call me Shirley“
Thinking you can bargain with the universe is magical thinking, and it’s the sort of superstition that many gamblers have…and, actually, you don’t have to be a gambler. Most people try to convince the universe to do them a favour from time-to-time.
Enough of that little rabbit hole, back to the topic at hand: betting on the US election.
Breaking News: Someone placed a $5m bet on a Trump win!
Crickey O’Reilly, according to online rumours, Curacao (a Caribbean-based casino) has taken a $5m bet from a British businessman on a Trump win. What a nutter…but I won’t be saying that if he wins – eek.
Did you know that the election is set to be the biggest betting event in history?
It’s set to be the biggest event in all sorts of other ways too, from the most contentious election in modern US history to the highest turn out ever. Absolutely mind-blowing stuff.
Right now, the bookies are still taking bets, but as of yesterday (2nd November 2020), they’d already taken more than £1bn in bets across the globe.
That’s equivalent to each person on earth wagering 14p, which might not sound like a lot, but you can buy a banana for that (You know the drill, always use a banana for scale when making comparisons online. It’s the standard unit of measurement online). Accounting for inflation, that’s the equivalent of £287.72 back in the year 1209, but back then you couldn’t buy bananas in America, or spend pound sterling.
Still, I hope you appreciate the scale of spending – it’s phenomenal.
One of the worrying things about this election is how quickly the odds change. One minute you’re being offered odds fo 50-1 on a Trump win, the next it’s 3-1. An odd tweet here, someone’s comment over there, and everything changes.
This weekend, Trump’s odds went up slightly and they’re not in Biden’s favour as much as the £1m better probably wants. Trump has roughly a 36% chance of winning, but if Biden wins (64% chance), the person who placed that bet will win £1.5m.
Last night, America went to bed with the bookies firmly supporting a Biden win. This morning, the odds have shifted away from that – they still have Biden to win, but it’s a close one.
Who gamblers are backing…
It’s a strange situation. At the time of writing this article, Biden has a 64% chance of winning, Trump has a 36% chance of winning.
Interestingly, this correlates almost perfectly inversely to which candidate people are backing, with around 66% of wagers on a Trump win, and 34% on a Biden win.
Summing It Up
I can’t sum it up. It’s crazy out there, and I’m soooooo excited to see what happens.